Members of the House of Lords are like convicted prisoners and people detained under the Mental Health Act – we don’t have a vote in UK Parliamentary elections.  I am tempted to believe that when the franchise was framed those drafting the legislation equated the inside of the House of Lords with a penal establishment or a lunatic asylum.  However, I expect the real reason is that as we are already Members of Parliament we do not need further representation in the House of Commons.

We do, however, get a vote in elections for the European Parliament and for local elections.

So this morning I was able to play my part in the democratic process.  It also set a test for Haringey’s electoral administrators as to whether I would be issued with the right ballot paper – a test I am pleased to say they passed without me having to prompt them!

I cast my three votes, of course, for the three Labour Council candidates – all of whom will make excellent councillors if elected.

Two notable features.

First, the polling station was busy.  The presiding officer, who has been presiding there for as long as I can remember, said it was the heaviest morning voting that she could recall and that there had been people waiting outside to vote at 6.50am.  So, it looks as if there is going to be a high turnout.

Second, there was a complete absence of the Tory Party.  There were tellers outside the polling station from Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens, but no Conservatives – even though this was a constituency that was continuously Conservative up until 1992.

Most political commentators are now hedging their bets in terms of what will happen after the General Election.  Nick Robinson talks about a “growing expectation” that David Cameron will be Prime Minister but then fudges it by saying that we “can’t know the outcome”.

I am prepared to make a firm prediction, however.  If the polls stay as they are and there are no last minute shifts, there WILL be a Tory Government with a small (10-20 seats) majority.

And what will happen then?

It is pretty easy to predict that too.

An emergency budget within weeks in which Chancellor George Osborne (and doesn’t that strike terror in the heart?) will solemnly tell the nation that “the books are so much worse than we expected”.  So VAT up to 20% (maybe 25%) and an immediate public sector jobs freeze and pay freeze (if not a pay cut) coupled with a massive reduction in budgets and a suspension of most public sector capital spending.  This will be softened by an emergency Bill to “enable” the “Big Society” (or the post -bureaucratic state as they originally wanted to call it).

This will enable the Cameron Government to tell the public that they don’t need to worry about the cuts in schools budgets or the collapse of SureStart or whatever else it might be, because local effort can provide alternatives or keep things going.  Hopi Sen brilliantly explains what the impact of the Swedish Schools model would mean and Luke Akehurst has the reality of “The Big Society”.

In practice, very few people will have the inclination or the opportunity to organise alternative “community-led” provision and those that do will not be the low-paid, the marginalised or the dispossessed.  And they certainly won’t be those whose families are hit by the job losses in the public sector or the double-dip private sector recession that will be precipitated by an Osborne emergency budget.

Meanwhile, Cameron’s small majority will give disproportionate influence to the fanatic Euro-sceptics and climate change deniers in the Parliamentary Conservative Party.  To keep them sweet, the UK will become totally marginalised in Europe and allied with the Sarah Palin wing of US politics – the result will be the forfeiture of Britain’s position in the world.

So an isolated, bankrupt nation with devastated public services beckons after Thursday.

It is not an enticing prospect, is it?

Fortunately, it doesn’t have to happen.

Yes, there will be a Tory Government according to the present polls.

But, there is still time.  It only takes one in thirty Tory voters to realise that the Conservatives are still “the nasty Party”, one in ten of those flirting with the LibDems to realise that Nick Clegg is really Cameron-lite and decide they don’t want to help him deliver a Conservative Government, and one in ten of those that were planning not to bother to vote to realise what is at stake and that their vote matters and that their really can be “a future fair for all”.

It is not that many and all that needs to happen is that they listen to this in the next twenty-four hours.

We chanced to be in the middle of Dorset West having a pub lunch earlier today (somebody’s got to do it).

There we were minding our own business in the corner.  And suddenly the discussion in the bar turned to the General Election.

To general agreement, the landlord announced:

“And, of course, if the Tories get in, they’ll put VAT up to 20% and increase the tax on beer and cigarettes.”

Now I appreciate that one should not extrapolate from one pub landlord.  However, most pub landlords would only express such trenchant political views to their clientele if they were fairly confident that there would be substantial agreement – and there was certainly no disagreement that I heard voiced.

So why is this significant?

Well this was in the heart of Dorset West.  A seat that Oliver Letwin is defending for the Conservatives against a strong LibDem challenge.  A seat that is a LibDem target with a majority of only 2,461.

Not good news for Letwin.  And a sign that Cameron’s complacency is misplaced.

The Ipsos MORI analysis in The Observer gives some interesting analysis of public perceptions of the three Party Leaders.

Actually, interesting is not the word – it is devastating for Nick Clegg and pretty awful for David Cameron.

When asked which of the three Party leaders would be best in a crisis, only 12% rated Nick Clegg (33% favoured David Cameron and 40% Gordon Brown).

On who is the most capable, Clegg only scored 17% (with 33% and 36% for the Cameron and Brown respectively).

And on who best understands world problems, Clegg could only muster 14% and Cameron 23%, while Gordon Brown scored 45%.

So with bombs in New York, melt-down in Greece, climate change, a fragile economy, and troops in Afghanistan, the message is quie clear:

“It’s no time for a novice.”

The LibDems to use Dad’s Army’s Corporal Jones’s phrase “don’t like it up em”.  They clearly did not expect the orchestrated attacks on Nick Clegg and their Party, which according to Nick Robinson were organised by Conservative Central Office and Team Cameron.

This is a bit ironic coming from the Party that excels in this tactic at local level and in by-elections.

We are told there is a possibility of a hung Parliament and that allegedly this is the outcome that many voters would like.  This morning on the Today programme one voter said a hung Parliament might be a good idea because you would be getting the best bits of each Party.

Hmmm.

Reminds me of the apocryphal story of the exchange between Isadora Duncan and George Bernard Shaw.  She is supposed to have said that she would like to have children with him – “think of the child with your brains and my beauty.”  And he is alleged to have replied: “But what if he were to have your brains and my beauty?”

Be careful, what you wish for.

I know that one should never generalise from one canvass session.

I also know that my unexpected appearance on the doorstep may have a strange effect on the house-holder concerned.

It is, of course, well-known that my charm, sunny demeanour and general all-round people skills (note the repeated use of irony) will have a strangely persuasive effect on those subjected to its full force.

However, in the space of 90 minutes this evening I came across four people who had previously voted Liberal Democrat but were now undecided …..

Something strange is happening out there.

There are moves afoot to cancel next week’s meeting of the Metropolitan Police Authority because “we are in the election period ?[and] this will have an effect on debate.”  It has, of course, been known for some time that there would definitely be London Borough elections on 6th May and it was an increasing certainty that the General Election would be held on the same date, so it is a little disingenuous to suggest that this has suddenly come as a surprise nine days before the scheduled meeting.

It is also nice to know that there is “debate” at Police Authority meetings – something that I had previously missed.

And, of course, it would never do if politics intruded.  Not that it ever has before (can you spot the heavy irony?).

I suspect the real reason is to avoid comment – let alone “debate” – about David Cameron’s strange statement in the first Leaders’ Debate about the number of uniformed police officers working in the Metropolitan Police’s HR Department.  I had tabled a question asking the Commissioner for his comments on this and the Met have already made a statement explaining that the officers concerned are overwhelmingly involved in training other police officers.

Still it would never do to have the Commissioner of Police for the Metropolis saying in a public forum a week before polling day that the Leader of the Opposition was talking garbage.

And no-one would want to highlight the fact that either the Leader of the Conservative Party doesn’t trust the Conservative Mayor and Deputy Mayor of London enough to check his facts with them OR that he dislikes them so much that he is prepared to highlight their failure to sort out what he clearly perceived as a problem.  It could, of course, be both: he doesn’t trust them AND he wanted to put the boot in.

It is a sunny Sunday morning and it is an absolute delight to be canvassing on the Campsbourne Estate in Hornsey.  The Estate is the heart of the ward I represented on Haringey Council for twenty-four years and it is gratifying that, even though it is twelve years since I last stood for election here, a number of local residents still remember me fondly.

My canvassing team includes Makbule Gunes, who has been working impressively hard as one of Labour’s local Council candidates, and is greeted warmly by many local residents as we go round.  She will clearly be a superb local representative when she is elected on 6th May.

Even more gratifying are the improvements that have been brought about on the Estate as a result of a Labour Government working with a Labour Council.  Each block we visit has new windows, new entrance doors and better security.

At Wat Tyler House, I remember what that block was like when I first went there as a Council candidate in 1978 – bleak, frighteningly insecure, lifts not working and with a dismembered pigeon in the stairwell – now it is bright and welcoming.

The Labour vote is clearly holding up – and no-one mentions Nick Clegg!

Pictured below is John Healey, the Housing Minister, with Karen Jennings, our excellent Labour Parliamentary candidate, and two of the local Labour Council candidates, Makbule Gunes and Eugene Akwasi-Ayisi, outside Wat Tyler House three weeks ago.

The Leaders’ Debate tonight was fairly predictable.  Of course, Nick Clegg, the one Leader there whom no-one expects to emerge from this General Election as Prime Minister, was able to appear relaxed and do his “plague on both your houses” bit.  And surprise, surprise was seen in the immediate aftermath as “the winner” – doesn’t mean that when people wake up tomorrow they’ll vote for his Party …

David Cameron should have performed better – shallow sound-bite discussions have always been his medium, whereas Gordon Brown prefers substance, detail and analysis.

What was striking, however, was the extent to which Mayor Boris Johnson seems never to be far from David Cameron’s thoughts.  He seems to be obsessed by his tousle-haired would-be rival.

He never mentioned his name, but what example did he give when he wanted to describe mis-management of resources in the police?  Why, it was in the Metropolitan Police, of course.  He asserted that four hundred uniformed officers were deployed on form-filling in the Met’s HR department – the sort of thing a Conservative Government would sort out.

But hang on who has been in charge of policing in London for the last two years?

Remind me.  Isn’t it the tousled-haired one himself?

And isn’t Mayor Boris Johnson a Conservative?

Well, yes, but he’s not a Cameron Conservative, is he?  So it’s OK for “Dave” to put the boot in.

(Presumably, Mayor Johnson’s defence is that he leaves details like that to his Deputy for Policing, the Dog-Catcher-in-Chief, Deputy Mayor Kit Malthouse AM.  And, of course, he in turn has been rather busy arguing for VAT to go up from 17.5% to 120%.  Another election intervention hardly likely to be popular with Team Cameron who are desperately trying to pretend that they are NOT planning a big hike in VAT if they win.)